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the reason shows were so 'unpredictable' early was due to heavy repeats. just look at any notebook and compare it with a gap chart for that show. i randomly looked at 02.07.1991
http://phish.net/treys-notebook?basedate=1991-02-07
/> http://phish.net/setlists/gapchart.php?d=1991-02-07
/>
due to the rules of treys notebook, this show was highly unpredictable. when in reality, there were THIRTEEN repeats from the night before. and five more on a 2 show gap.
due to their small song catalog, they were flooded with massive repeats early in their career, trey's notbook just isnt set up to evaluate them properly.